The New England Patriots head into the 2018 off-season in a way nobody at 1 Patriot Place should be happy about: fresh off a loss in Super Bowl LII at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles. While many can point to the myriad of bizarre coaching decisions (like SS Jordan Richards being a big part of the game plan or the benching of starting CB Malcolm Butler in favor of Eric Rowe and Lions castoff Johnson Bademosi) as the primary factor in the loss, nobody can deny that the 2017 Patriots team was not talented enough to win it all–especially on defense. Fortunately the Patriots get a chance to remedy what ailed them in 2017 via free agency and the draft. Over the next few weeks here at Patriots POV, we’re going to highlight a handful of pending free agents that we think can contribute to next year’s iteration of the Patriots in search of their 6th Lombardi Trophy.
Something that remains a bit of an afterthought following the benching of Malcolm Butler and the porous pass defense in the Super Bowl is just how poor the Patriots run defense was in 2017. In fact they downright sucked defending the run, allowing an average of 110 rush yards per game in 2017. That’s 30 yards more per game than they averaged in 2016! Read that again and again. It. Was. Not. Good. While many people blame the linebackers for the team’s poor run D, it’s worth noting that some of the blame falls squarely on the teams defensive line. Teams would continuously run up the gut vs the Patriots and after meeting little resistance up front and even less resistance at the second level, runners were able to pick up large chunks of yardage with ease. That can’t continue to happen in 2018 if that Patriots want to hoist the Lombardi in Atlanta next February.
The Patriots DT situation was unexpectedly messy last year. To open the season, New England brought back largely the same crew that helped deliver rings in 2016. With the additions of ex-Raven Lawrence Guy, Adam Butler (a rookie free agent out of Vanderbilt) and late-season add-on Ricky Jean-Francois, tackle was expected to be a strength for New England in 2017. It objectively was not. Alan Branch’s play fell so far off a cliff that he was a healthy scratch for most of the year including the entirety of the playoffs. Vincent Valentine missed the entire year with a knee injury after an impressive finish to his rookie season. That left Malcom Brown as the only consistent member of the DT rotation that played for the Patriots in 2016. While Jean-Francois, Guy and Butler all had relatively good years, the absence of Branch proved costly as none of the guys above are half the run-stopper that Branch was. That said, the Patriots are in need of an interior defensive lineman that can absolutely shut down the run. The Patriots are in need of a guy like Raiders DT Justin Ellis.
The Good
Justin “Jelly” Ellis, 27, is a beast in run defense. Ellis is a two-down player that generally lines up as the 1-technique (inside shoulder of the Center) but can only play 0-technique/nose tackle (heads up on the Center). He’s a strong man who bullies players in 1 on 1 blocking and rarely gives up his gap. He doesn’t get pushed around, rarely ends up on the ground and is wizardly in his ability to shed blocks and make tackles at his size (6’1, 331) despite not having great hand usage. Without hyperbole, Justin Ellis is the best or second best (behind DaQuan Jones of the Titans) run stopping defensive tackle on the free agent market this year.
The Bad
Justin Ellis is a beast in run defense, but that’s pretty much all he is. Ellis offers literally nothing as a pass rusher from the interior. He has all of 0.5 career sacks, and that came as a result of being one of two players to touch the QB before he gave himself up. He has excellent power to push the pocket but as many a draft bust can attest to, being stronger than the guy in front of you does not make you a competent pass rusher. Another slight issue seen on the tape is that Ellis struggles with lateral movement especially on stretch runs. He also shows a propensity to struggle with double team blocks.
Is it a Fit?
Absolutely. The Patriots desperately need a young run-stuffing DT to pair with Malcom Brown. Branch is gone next year (the Patriots already declined his 2018 contract option) and Jean-Francois is a journeyman DT that, although he played well down the stretch last season, does not project to be the answer the Patriots need. On early downs, and short yardage situations, the team can trot out Jelly and Brown flanked by Guy and Trey Flowers to form a formidable run-stopping front. Of course, being the player he is means that Ellis will come off the field on obvious passing situations. His lack of pass-rush ability pigeonholes him into a two down role but that’s fine for the Patriots. The team relies on specialized roles for their players and if Ellis is a just a two-down run-stuffer, then so be it. He comes off the field and Adam Butler or Deatrich Wise Jr come on in his stead to rush the passer; it’s a win-win situation for all involved.
Contractually, Ellis shouldn’t be too expensive. Two-down player who doesn’t impact the pass in a passing league shouldn’t command too much. OverTheCap.com projects Ellis to have a market of roughly $4M annually which is not prohibitive. In fact a two-year deal at roughly $4M annually would be a little cheaper than what the team had been paying Branch. Of all the free-agent defensive tackles, Ellis may be the one that fits what the the Patriots need the most.
Patriots POV 